Week 13 NFL Picks

Week 12 Results:

Week 12 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 2-4-0 13-5-1 (.684)
Drive Picks 7-8-0 24-17-1 (.571)
Metric Picks 9-6-0 29-12-1 (.690)
QBR Picks 4-11-0 21-20-1 (.500)

Last week was pretty rough, as there were a lot of big wins and upsets. However, each model (including consensus picks) is still at or above .500 on the year. Here are my model’s picks for this week:

Game Drive Pick Metric Pick QBR Pick
NO (-7.5) @ DAL DAL +7.5 DAL +7.5 NO -7.5
IND (-4) @ JAX IND -4 IND -4 IND -4
BAL @ ATL (-1) BAL +1 BAL +1 ATL -1
CHI @ NYG No Spread No Spread No Spread
BUF @ MIA (-4.5) MIA -4.5 BUF +4.5 MIA -4.5
CLE @ HOU (-6) HOU -6 HOU -6 HOU -6
DEN (-4.5) @ CIN CIN +4.5 DEN -4.5 CIN +4.5
ARI @ GB (-14) GB -14 GB -14  ARI +14
LAR (-10) @ DET DET +10  LAR -10 DET +10
CAR (-3.5) @ TB TB +3.5 TB +3.5 TB+3.5
KC (-15) @ OAK OAK +15 KC -15 OAK +15
NYJ @ TEN (-7.5) NYJ +7.5 NYJ +7.5 TEN -7.5
SF @ SEA (-10) SEA -10 SEA -10 SEA -10
MIN @ NE (-5) NE -5 MIN +5 MIN +5
LAC @ PIT (-3.5) LAC +3.5 LAC +3.5 LAC +3.5
WAS @ PHI (-6.5) WAS +6.5 WAS +6.5 WAS +6.5

Methodology:
Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Method: Uses win statistics and Team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
IND -4
HOU -6
TB +3.5
SEA -10
LAC +3.5
WAS +6.5

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