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Week 15 Results:
| Week 15 Results | Season Results | |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus Picks | 5-1-0 | 26-9-1 (.722) |
| Drive Picks | 10-6-0 | 56-32-1 (.629) |
| Metric Picks | 11-5-0 | 58-30-1 (.651) |
| QBR Picks | 9-7-0 | 46-42-1 (.517) |
Another strong showing for the consensus picks, which have been positive every week but one so far. This week will be a lot harder to predict, however, as teams start sitting players and playoff races hit their peaks. Here are my model’s picks for this week:
| Game | Drive Pick | Metric Pick | QBR Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS @ TEN (-10) | WAS +10 | WAS +10 | WAS +10 |
| BAL @ LAC (-4) | LAC -4 | LAC -4 | LAC -4 |
| NYG @ IND (-9) | IND -9 | IND -9 | NYG +9 |
| ATL (-3) @ CAR | CAR +3 | CAR +3 | CAR +3 |
| CIN @ CLE (-9) | CLE -9 | CIN +9 | CIN +9 |
| TB @ DAL (-7) | DAL -7 | TB +7 | TB +7 |
| MIN (-6) @ DET | DET +6 | DET +6 | DET +6 |
| JAC @ MIA (-4) | MIA -4 | JAC +4 | JAC +4 |
| BUF @ NE (-13.5) | NE -13.5 | NE -13.5 | NE -13.5 |
| GB (-3) @ NYJ | NYJ +3 | GB -3 | GB -3 |
| HOU @ PHI (-1) | PHI -1 | HOU +1 | HOU +1 |
| LAR (-14) @ ARI | ARI +14 | LAR -14 | ARI +14 |
| CHI (-4) @ SF | SF +4 | CHI -4 | SF +4 |
| PIT @ NO (-6) | NO -6 | NO -6 | NO -6 |
| KC (-2.5) @ SEA | SEA +2.5 | SEA +2.5 | SEA +2.5 |
| DEN (-3) @ OAK | DEN -3 | DEN -3 | OAK +3 |
Methodology:
Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Method: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings
Consensus Picks:
WAS +10
LAC -4
DET +6
CAR +3 (I’d stay away, Cam Newton is sitting)
NE -13.5
NO -6
SEA +2.5
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i count 11-5 on the metric picks week 15
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Updated. Looks like I miscounted, thanks for the heads up!
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Interesting and impressive work. Happy to be trailing. Thank you.
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I think cam sitting might be a positive 🤪
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Thank you for all the work that you do. Didn’t get to tail any of your picks at all, but I appreciate all the hard work. Since your model seems to be working. Will you be able to do this again for next season?
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Thank you! Yes, I plan on doing it for next season. Not sure when I will start posting picks, however, as the models how they currently run will be extremely skewed during the first weeks of the season due to limited data.
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Haven’t seen this all season but this is sweet. Are you making one for this week?
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I plan to, although I wouldn’t put much faith into the picks considering all of the teams that are out of playoff contention/have nothing to play for/are sitting starters.
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Do you feel like it’s harder to predict the fames later in the season with so many players sitting for playoff purposes?
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Yes, it is very hard to predict games the last 2 weeks. There so many moving parts like players sitting, teams having nothing to play for, and teams resting starters that the model can’t account for. I still plan on releasing picks for week 17, but I would not put faith in any game that is affected by the things I just mentioned.
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