Week 16 NFL Picks

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

Week 15 Results:

Week 15 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 5-1-0 26-9-1 (.722)
Drive Picks 10-6-0 56-32-1 (.629)
Metric Picks 11-5-0 58-30-1 (.651)
QBR Picks 9-7-0 46-42-1 (.517)

Another strong showing for the consensus picks, which have been positive every week but one so far. This week will be a lot harder to predict, however, as teams start sitting players and playoff races hit their peaks. Here are my model’s picks for this week:

Game Drive Pick Metric Pick QBR Pick
WAS @ TEN (-10) WAS +10 WAS +10 WAS +10
BAL @ LAC (-4) LAC -4 LAC -4 LAC -4
NYG @ IND (-9) IND -9 IND -9 NYG +9
ATL (-3) @ CAR CAR +3 CAR +3 CAR +3
CIN @ CLE (-9) CLE -9 CIN +9 CIN +9
TB @ DAL (-7) DAL -7 TB +7 TB +7
MIN (-6) @ DET DET +6 DET +6 DET +6
JAC @ MIA (-4) MIA -4 JAC +4 JAC +4
BUF @ NE (-13.5) NE -13.5 NE -13.5 NE -13.5
GB (-3) @ NYJ NYJ +3 GB -3 GB -3
HOU @ PHI (-1) PHI -1 HOU +1 HOU +1
LAR (-14) @ ARI ARI +14 LAR -14 ARI +14
CHI (-4) @ SF SF +4 CHI -4 SF +4
PIT @ NO (-6) NO -6 NO -6 NO -6
KC (-2.5) @ SEA SEA +2.5 SEA +2.5 SEA +2.5
DEN (-3) @ OAK DEN -3 DEN -3 OAK +3

Methodology:
Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Method: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
WAS +10
LAC -4
DET +6
CAR +3 
(I’d stay away, Cam Newton is sitting)
NE -13.5
NO -6
SEA +2.5

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11 thoughts on “Week 16 NFL Picks

  1. Thank you for all the work that you do. Didn’t get to tail any of your picks at all, but I appreciate all the hard work. Since your model seems to be working. Will you be able to do this again for next season?

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    1. Thank you! Yes, I plan on doing it for next season. Not sure when I will start posting picks, however, as the models how they currently run will be extremely skewed during the first weeks of the season due to limited data.

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    1. Yes, it is very hard to predict games the last 2 weeks. There so many moving parts like players sitting, teams having nothing to play for, and teams resting starters that the model can’t account for. I still plan on releasing picks for week 17, but I would not put faith in any game that is affected by the things I just mentioned.

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