Week 17 NFL Picks

I’ve created a new twitter account here (@FQInsights), where I will tweet out every article as it’s posted and also provide additional commentary and updated picks.

Week 16 Results:

Week 16 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 2-5-0 28-14-1 (.651)
Drive Picks 3-12-1 59-44-2 (.562)
Metric Picks 6-9-1 64-39-2 (.610)
QBR Picks 6-9-1 52-51-2 (.495)

Last week was abysmal for the models. As predicted, the games were extremely hard to predict, and I expect that to be the case even more so this week. To remove some of the variables the models cannot account for, the models will only be picking games in which both teams have something or nothing to pay for. Here are my models’ picks for those games:

Game Drive Pick Metric Pick QBR Pick
DET @ GB (-8) GB -8 GB -8 DET +8
MIA @ BUF (-6) MIA +5.5 MIA +5.5 MIA +5.5
ATL (-1) @ TB TB +1 TB +1 TB +1
CHI @ MIN (-4.5) CHI +4.5 CHI +4.5 CHI +4.5
IND (-3) @ TEN TEN +3 TEN +3 TEN +3

Methodology:
Drive Method: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Method: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Method: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
MIA +5.5
TB +1
CHI +4.5
TEN +3
(I’d stay away, Mariota is doubtful)

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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