Simulating the Super Bowl

Only one match-up remains in the 2018-2019 NFL season, and it’s shaping up to be great one. In a clash between the established, dynastic Patriots and the cutting edge Rams, it’s anyone’s game. With this in mind, I simulated the Super Bowl 1000 times.

For the simulations, I used strength of schedule adjusted points scored and allowed per game for each team. Then, I averaged the expected performance of one team’s offense and the other team’s defense to arrive at a projected score for each team and simulated the match-up 1000 times. Here are the results:

Rams  vs. Patriots (-2.5) T: 56.5

Game

Rams

Patriots

Average Score

26.9 26.7
Chance of Winning 50.9%

49.1%

Chance of Covering

58.9%

41.1%

Totals

Average Total

53.7

Chance of Over

42.7%
Chance of Under

57.3%

Value Picks:

 

  • Total Under 56.5
  • LAR +2.5
  • LAR ML +118

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s