Week 4 NFL Picks

With statistics and metrics starting to level out at least a little, I will start posting NFL picks weekly from now until week 15. For more explanation on why I started now, why I’m stopping early, and in depth past results, read my model preview post here. Without further ado, here are my models’ picks for the week:

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
PHI @ GB (-4) GB -4 PHI +4

GB -4

NE (-7) @ BUF

NE -7 NE -7 BUF +7
CLE @ BAL (-7) BAL -7 BAL -7

BAL -7

KC (-6.5) @ DET

KC -6.5 DET +6.5 KC -6.5
OAK @ IND (-7) OAK +7 OAK +7

IND -7

CAR @ HOU (-4.5)

CAR +4.5 CAR +4.5 HOU -4.5
TEN @ ATL (-4) TEN +4 TEN +4

TEN +4

LAC (-16) @ MIA

LAC -16 MIA +16 LAC -16
WAS @ NYG (-3) WAS +3 WAS +3

NYG -3

SEA (-5) @ ARI

ARI +5 SEA -5 SEA -5
TB @ LAR (-10) LAR -10 TB +10

LAR -10

MIN @ CHI (-2.5)

MIN +2.5 MIN +2.5 MIN +2.5
JAC @ DEN (-3) JAC +3 JAC +3

JAC +3

DAL (-2.5) @ NO

DAL -2.5 DAL -2.5 DAL -2.5

CIN @ PIT (-4)

CIN +4 CIN +4

CIN +4

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
BAL -7
TEN +4
MIN +2.5
JAC +3
DAL -2.5
CIN +4

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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