Week 5 NFL Picks

Week 4 Results:

Week 4 Results

Consensus Picks

2-4 (.333)

Metric Picks

5-10 (.333)
Drive Picks

8-7 (.533)

QBR Picks

6-9 (.400)

Last week was a week of upsets, with road dogs surprising many.  The models didn’t perform very well considering all the upsets, but hopefully another week of data can set things straight.

This season, I will start tracking CLV on all consensus picks to get a better idea of how the models are performing. Last week, consensus picks finished with +4 CLV, with no games ending with negative value. This is an indicator that the process behind the models may be good even if the results aren’t.

Here are my models’ picks for the week:

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
LAR @ SEA (-1.5) LAR +1.5  LAR +1.5

SEA -1.5

CHI (-5) @ OAK

OAK +5 CHI -5 OAK +5
NE (-15.5) @ WAS NE -15.5 NE -15.5

WAS +15.5

BAL (-3.5) @ PIT

BAL -3.5 BAL -3.5 BAL -3.5
NYJ @ PHI (-13.5) NYJ +13.5 NYJ +13.5

PHI -13.5

ARI @ CIN (-3)

ARI +3 ARI +3 ARI +3
JAC @ CAR (-3.5) CAR -3.5 JAC +3.5

JAC +3.5

TB @ NO (-3.5)

TB +3.5 TB +3.5 NO -3.5
ATL @ HOU (-5) HOU -5 ATL +5

HOU -5

BUF @ TEN (-3)

TEN -3 BUF +3 TEN -3
MIN (-5.5) @ NYG MIN -5.5 MIN -5.5

NYG +5.5

DEN @ LAC (-6.5)

DEN +6.5 DEN +6.5 LAC -6.5
GB @ DAL (-3.5) DAL -3.5 DAL -3.5

DAL -3.5

IND @ KC (-11)

KC -11 IND +11 KC -11

CLE @ SF (-3.5)

SF -3.5 SF -3.5

SF -3.5

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
BAL -3.5
ARI +3
DAL -3.5
SF -3.5

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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2 thoughts on “Week 5 NFL Picks

    1. SRS is Simple Rating System, a metric developed by pfref that adjusts average win margin by strength of schedule.

      CLV stands for Closing Line Value, and is a measure of how much value a pick generates as the betting line moves. If I pick a team at -3.5 and the line moves to -4, I’m getting +.5 CLV. That’s a super basic definition, there’s a lot more in depth descriptions online.

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