Week 6 NFL Picks

Week 5 Results:

Week 5 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 2-4-0 4-8-0 (.333)
Metric Picks 11-4-0 16-14-0 (.533)
Drive Picks 10-5-0 18-12-0 (.600)
QBR Picks 4-11-0 10-20-0 (.333)

Another disappointing week, as consensus picks once again finished 2-4. The QBR model is clearly behind the others, so I will closely monitor it the next few weeks to see if I should continue with it.

Despite the poor results, consensus picks still finished with positive CLV of +1.5, bringing season consensus CLV to +6.5.

Here are my models’ picks for the week:

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
NYG @ NE (-17) NYG +17  NYG +17

NYG +17

CAR (-2.5) @ TB

TB +2.5 TB +2.5 TB +2.5
HOU @ KC (-4.5) HOU +4.5 HOU +4.5

KC -4.5

SEA (-1.5) @ CLE

SEA -1.5 SEA -1.5 SEA -1.5
CIN @ BAL (-11.5) CIN +11.5 CIN +11.5

 BAL -11.5

NO @ JAC (-1)

NO +1

JAC -1

NO +1
PHI @ MIN (-3) MIN -3 PHI +3

MIN -3

WAS (-3.5) @ MIA

WAS -3.5 WAS -3.5 WAS -3.5
SF @ LAR (-3) SF +3 SF +3

SF +3

ATL (-2.5) @ ARI

ARI +2.5 ARI +2.5 ARI +2.5
DAL (-7.5) @ NYJ DAL -7.5 DAL -7.5

DAL -7.5

TEN @ DEN (-2)

TEN +2 TEN +2 TEN +2
PIT @ LAC (-7) PIT +7 PIT +7

LAC -7

DET @ GB (-4.5)

GB -4.5 DET +4.5 DET +4.5

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
NYG +17
TB +2.5
SEA -1.5
WAS -3.5
ARI +2.5
SF +3
TEN +2
DAL -7.5

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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