Week 9 NFL Picks

Week 8 Results:

Week 8 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 3-2-0 15-17-0 (.469)
Metric Picks 7-8-0 40-33-0 (.548)
Drive Picks 9-6-0 44-29-0 (.603)
QBR Picks 8-7-0 30-43-0 (.411)

Consensus picks were positive again this week (albeit slightly), going 3-2. The CLV of these picks also flipped, with a total of +0.5 this week and +8.5 this season.

Here are my models’ picks for the week:

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
SF (-10) @ ARI SF -10 ARI +10

ARI +10

HOU (-1.5) @ JAC

JAC +1.5 JAC +1.5 JAC +1.5
CHI @ PHI (-5) CHI +5 CHI +5

PHI -5

MIN @ KC (-2.5)

MIN +2.5

MIN +2.5

MIN +2.5

WAS @ BUF (-9.5) BUF -9.5 WAS +9.5

WAS +9.5

IND (-1) @ PIT

PIT +1

IND -1

IND -1
TEN @ CAR (-4) TEN +4 TEN +4

TEN +4

NYJ (-3) @ MIA

NYJ -3 MIA +3 MIA +3
TB @ SEA (-6) TB +6 TB +6

SEA -6

DET @ OAK (-2)

DET +2

DET +2

OAK -2

CLE (-3) @ DEN DEN +3  DEN +3

 DEN +3

GB (-3.5) @ LAC

GB -3.5 LAC +3.5  GB -3.5
NE (-3.5) @ BAL NE -3.5 NE -3.5

BAL +3.5

DAL (-7) @ NYG

DAL -7 DAL -7 DAL -7

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
JAC +1.5
MIN +2.5
TEN +4
DEN +3
DAL -7

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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