Week 10 NFL Picks

Week 9 Results:

Week 9 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 2-3-0 17-20-0 (.459)
Metric Picks 4-9-1 44-42-1 (.506)
Drive Picks 5-8-1 49-27-1 (.563)
QBR Picks 7-6-1 37-49-1 (.425)

Consensus picks went in the other direction this week, finishing 2-3. The CLV of consensus picks was extremely high this week, mainly due to significant line movement in the MIN vs KC game. They finished with a total CLV of +9.0 (8 from the KC game) this week and +17.5 this season.

Here are my models’ picks for the week:

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
LAC (-1) @ OAK LAC -1  LAC -1

OAK +1

BAL (-10) @ CIN

BAL -10 CIN +10

BAL -10

ATL @ NO (-13) NO -13 ATL +13

NO -13

BUF @ CLE (-3)

BUF +3

BUF +3

BUF +3

NYG (-2.5) @ NYJ NYG -2.5 NYG -2.5

NYG -2.5

KC (-4) @ TEN

TEN +4

TEN +4

TEN +4
ARI @ TB (-4.5) TB -4.5 ARI +4.5

ARI +4.5

DET @ CHI (-2.5)

CHI -2.5 DET +2.5 DET +2.5
MIA @ IND (-10.5) IND -10.5 IND -10.5

IND -10.5

LAR (-3.5) @ PIT

PIT +3.5

PIT +3.5

PIT +3.5

CAR @ GB (-5) CAR +5  CAR +5

GB -5

MIN @ DAL (-3)

MIN +3 MIN +3 MIN +3
SEA @ SF (-6) SF -6 SEA +6

SEA +6

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
BUF +3
NYG -2.5
TEN +4
IND -10.5
PIT +3.5
MIN +3

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