Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 Results:

Week 9 Results Season Results
Consensus Picks 3-2-1 20-22-1 (.465)
Metric Picks 5-7-1 49-49-2 (.490)
Drive Picks 6-6-1 55-33-2 (.550)
QBR Picks 8-4-1 45-53-2 (.450)

Consensus picks finished 3-2-1 this week, once again hovering around .500. They finished with a total CLV of -1.0 this week and +16.5 this season.

Here are my models’ picks for the week:

 

Game

Metric Pick Drive Pick QBR Pick
PIT @ CLE (-3) PIT +3 PIT +3

PIT +3

DAL (-3) @ DET

DAL -3 DAL -3

DET +3

JAC @ IND (-3) IND -3 JAC +3

IND -3

DEN @ MIN (-10.5)

DEN +10.5

DEN +10.5

MIN -10.5

HOU @ BAL (-4) BAL -4 HOU +4

HOU +4

NYJ @ WAS (-1.5)

WAS -1.5

WAS -1.5

WAS -1.5
ATL @ CAR (-5.5) CAR -5.5 N/A*

CAR -5.5

BUF (-6) @ MIA

BUF -6 BUF -6 BUF -6
NO (-5.5) @ TB TB +5.5 TB +5.5

NO -5.5

ARI @ SF (-11)

SF -11

AR +11

SF -11

NE (-3.5) @ PHI NE -3.5 NE -3.5

PHI +3.5

CIN @ OAK (-10.5)

OAK -10.5 CIN +10.5 OAK -10.5
CHI @ LAR (-6.5) CHI +6.5  CHI +6.5

 CHI +6.5

KC (-3.5) @ LAC LAC +3.5 LAC +3.5

KC -3.5

Methodology:
Drive Model: Uses average drive statistics such as Points per Drive and TD%
Metric Model: Uses advanced metrics such as SRS and EXP
QBR Model: Uses win statistics and team QB Ratings

Consensus Picks:
PIT +3
WAS -1.5
BUF -6
CHI +6.5

If you would like to to continue seeing these picks every week, please consider donating via PayPal here so I can continue updating the models.

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